Welsh companies recorded fresh drops in business activity and new sales during July, according to the latest Cymru Growth Tracker data from NatWest.
At 49.1 at the start of the third quarter, the headline Wales Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – fell from 50.5 in June, to signal a renewed decrease in output levels at Welsh businesses. The contraction follows back-to-back expansions in activity.
Lower output reflected weak client demand as new business declined for the first time in three months.
On the price front, paces of input cost and output charge inflation quickened on the month, with the rate of increase in the former historically elevated.
That said, the degree of optimism in the year-ahead outlook improved to the strongest in five months. Meanwhile, the rate of job shedding softened to the weakest since last October.
Jessica Shipman, Chair, NatWest Cymru Regional Board, said:
“July data indicated a dip in demand conditions at Welsh firms, as a renewed fall in new business dented output levels. Customer hesitancy and a fragile sales environment weighed on the private sector, as companies cut workforce numbers again amid a sharper reduction in backlogs of work.
“Nevertheless, the pace of job shedding slowed to the weakest in nine months as business confidence picked up to its strongest since February. Businesses hope for a rebound in customer purchasing through the remainder of 2025.
“Efforts to cut headcounts also in part stemmed from the ongoing fallout from recent changes to National Insurance contributions and the Minimum Wage. Despite easing in June, inflationary pressures regained some momentum and although firms were able to raise their selling prices, new order inflows suffered. Amid growing strain on margins, containing pressure on balance sheets will remain a priority in the coming months.”
Performance in relation to UK
The rate of decline in output was the third-fastest of the 12 monitored UK areas (behind Yorkshire & Humber and Scotland).
Welsh private sector firms signalled a renewed decrease in new orders during July. Although modest, the pace of decline was the quickest in four months. That said, the pace of contraction was slightly slower than the UK average.
Despite a drop in new order inflows, Welsh companies were more upbeat in their expectations regarding output over the coming year in July. The level of positive sentiment picked up to the highest since February. Nonetheless, expectations were muted relative to both the long-run series and UK averages.
The rate of cost inflation quickened from that seen in June and was historically elevated. Greater input prices were largely linked to higher wage bills and increased transportation and raw material costs. The pace of the latest uptick was broadly in line with the UK trend.
At the same time, companies were able to raise their output charges during July. The rate of inflation accelerated from June’s recent low but was more muted than that seen at the UK level.
Welsh private sector firms registered a further decrease in employment during July, thereby extending the current sequence of job shedding to almost a year. Lower staffing levels were often attributed to a reduction in new sales, redundancies due to higher wage costs and the non-replacement of voluntary leavers. Although strong, the pace of contraction in headcounts was softer than the UK average.
Meanwhile, backlogs of work at Welsh companies contracted again, and at the sharpest rate since March. Of the 12 monitored UK areas, only Yorkshire & Humber recorded a steeper drop in incomplete business.
