Wales may need to deliver more than 10,600 homes a year over the next five years if it is to reflect the Welsh Government’s latest housing need figures on a comparable basis, according to new analysis from planning and development consultancy Lichfields.
The Welsh Government’s updated Estimates of Housing Need, published in February, identify a central requirement of around 8,700 homes per year between 2025 and 2030. That is already well above recent delivery levels, with housing completions averaging around 5,000 homes a year and 4,631 delivered in 2024/25.
However, Lichfields’ review shows that the way the new figures are presented differs from the approach taken in 2019. The latest estimates separate newly arising need from the existing backlog of unmet need, currently identified as 9,400 households.
In 2019, that backlog was factored into the first five years of the plan period. If the same method were applied to the new dataset, the annual requirement for 2025–2030 would equate to 10,620 homes per year – a 43% increase on a like-for-like basis.
The updated figures also suggest a shift in the balance of housing required. For the next five years, the central estimate indicates around 65% market housing and 35% affordable housing.
Gareth Williams, Senior Director at Lichfields, said: “Even the central estimate of 8,700 homes a year represents a significant uplift on recent delivery. On a comparable basis with the previous methodology, the annual requirement would exceed 10,600 homes.
“That gap between identified need and actual delivery is substantial. There is an urgent need for planning policy reform to ensure continuity of housing delivery where Local Development Plans are failing to progress. In our view, this should be a priority for whichever party forms the next Welsh Government after the May elections.”
The analysis also explains that the published estimates should be viewed as a minimum, given the way they have been calculated.
Arwel Evans, Planning Director at Lichfields’ Cardiff office, added: “The latest household projections will form a key part of the evidence base for Regional and Local Development Plans. Authorities bringing forward new or revised plans will need to consider these figures carefully.
“If Wales is to move closer to meeting identified need, there will need to be confidence in land supply, up-to-date plans and a consistent policy framework to support delivery.”
The new housing estimates are expected to inform the next iteration of Future Wales and shape housing policy and development strategy across the country.
