Transport for Wales and Network Rail are preparing for a wetter and windier autumn and winter, with temporary timetable changes on selected routes until Friday 4 December 2026.
The Met Office’s latest long-range outlook points to a greater likelihood of unsettled weather through late autumn and early winter. El Niño is among a number of global weather patterns that could influence conditions across the UK.
Periods of heavy rain can raise the risk of flooding, particularly after a hot, dry summer when hard ground absorbs sudden downpours less readily, while stronger winds can bring down trees and debris. Network Rail and Transport for Wales are also preparing for the familiar impact of fallen leaves on the railway.
Passengers are being encouraged to check before they travel, as some services will depart a few minutes earlier than usual. Transport for Wales said similar temporary autumn timetable changes last autumn contributed to a 45% reduction in autumn-related delays on the Wrexham to Bidston line and a 233% improvement on the Conwy Valley line.
Routes subject to the temporary changes are Wrexham to Bidston, the Conwy Valley, the Marches line between Shrewsbury and Newport, Shrewsbury to Birmingham, Shrewsbury to Chester and Crewe, and Maesteg to Ebbw Vale.
On the Wrexham to Bidston line, the majority of services will start and terminate at Wrexham General, with four peak-time services protected when possible so they can continue through to Wrexham Central. No rail replacement services will run between Wrexham General and Wrexham Central. Journeys on the route will be retimed by approximately one to three minutes, with connections preserved at Shotton.
On the Maesteg line, most services from Cardiff Central to Maesteg will leave Cardiff Central one to two minutes earlier. The 22:13 Ebbw Vale Town to Maesteg service will not run from Monday to Friday to allow the railhead treatment train to operate; passengers are advised to use the 23:30 Cardiff Central to Carmarthen service to Bridgend, with a rail replacement bus to Maesteg.
On the Conwy Valley line between Llandudno Junction and Blaenau Ffestiniog, journeys will take two to three minutes longer, with trains leaving Blaenau Ffestiniog slightly earlier. Minor retiming will also apply on the Marches, Shrewsbury to Birmingham, and Shrewsbury to Chester and Crewe routes.
Network Rail Wales and Borders is deploying four specialist treatment trains that will treat more than 54,400 miles of track across 224 circuits on key routes, clearing leaf residue from the rails. The trains use high-pressure water to remove leaf contamination and debris and, at selected locations, apply an adhesion modifier to improve wheel-to-rail grip.
Network Rail has carried out targeted drainage upgrades at locations repeatedly affected by flooding and will have 10 dedicated Autumn Response Teams ready to respond. For the first time, 10 weather stations have been installed across the Wales and Borders route to provide real-time local weather data.
Transport for Wales is also strengthening fleet resilience with a new wheel lathe at Canton depot. During leaf-fall season, compressed leaves can form a slippery layer on the rail, causing wheels to slip and create flat spots. Wheel lathes remove those flat spots by reprofiling the wheels. The new facility forms part of a £2.5 million investment in Canton and follows the opening of a new wheel lathe at Holyhead earlier this year.
Colin Lea, Planning & Performance Director at Transport for Wales, said: “While these timetable changes are relatively minor, they play an important role in helping us deliver a more reliable and consistent service during the autumn months, when trains are most affected by leaf fall.
“This year, we’ve been able to include these changes in journey planners 12 weeks in advance, giving customers more notice so they can plan their journeys with confidence. We’ve also worked hard to minimise disruption to services, avoiding removing station stops which we know causes a lot of inconvenience for our customers”
“Alongside working closely with Network Rail, these measures help us reduce delays, improve reliability and keep customers moving safely throughout the autumn period.”
Martin Taylor, Chief Infrastructure Officer for Network Rail Wales and Borders said: “By planning early, making use of the latest operational and weather intelligence, and working closely with industry partners, we can manage safety, risk, minimise disruption and keep services running reliably throughout the autumn period.
“We’re continually looking to improve our capabilities, making greater use of intelligence-led data and technology to support our decision-making. This helps us adapt to changing weather patterns and prepare for future challenges”.
Sarah Davies, Met Office Head of Environment and Energy added: “El Niño is one of several factors that can influence the UK’s weather. While its impact on the UK is less direct than in some other parts of the world, it can increase the likelihood of wetter conditions during late autumn and early winter. However, it is only one of a number of large-scale atmospheric drivers that influence weather patterns in UK.
“The Met Office’s latest long range outlook suggests an increased chance of wetter and windier than average conditions through late autumn and early winter. This broad signal is consistent with the influence we would typically expect from El Niño. Seasonal forecasts indicate the most likely weather patterns over a period of several months rather than predicting exactly when or where impacts may occur.
“With a greater likelihood of periods of unsettled weather at times, it is important that travellers, communities and businesses stay up to date with the latest forecasts and any weather warnings issued by the Met Office so they can make informed decisions and plan ahead should severe weather affect their area.”
Transport for Wales and Network Rail are encouraging customers to plan ahead and check the latest timetable information at tfw.wales or on the TfW app.
