Wales is on course to appoint its first non-Labour First Minister since devolution began, after Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party in the historic 2026 Senedd election.
The election, held on 7 May under Wales’ new fully proportional D’Hondt voting system, delivered the biggest political shift since the Senedd was established in 1999.
For the first time ever, turnout passed the 50% mark in a Senedd election, reaching 51.65%, as voters headed to the polls across 16 new six-member super constituencies to elect 96 Members of the Senedd.
No party secured the 49 seats needed for an outright majority, but Plaid Cymru finished as the largest party and is now expected to lead the next Welsh Government.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth is widely expected to be confirmed as Wales’ next First Minister when the Senedd formally reconvenes in the coming days.
Under the new Senedd arithmetic, Plaid Cymru holds 43 seats, alongside two Green MSs likely to support the nomination. Reform UK and the Conservatives together hold 41 seats, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats are expected to abstain rather than vote against.
That would give Rhun ap Iorwerth enough support to win the First Minister vote in the Senedd chamber.
The new Senedd is expected to begin work rapidly following the election result.
Newly elected MSs are already beginning the oath of allegiance process, with political parties were holding internal meetings and strategy sessions over the weekend.
Outgoing Presiding Officer Elin Jones is currently consulting party leaders before formally setting a date for the new Senedd to convene.
The first major vote will be for the new Presiding Officer, or Llywydd, with the Senedd required to receive at least 24 hours’ notice before members sit for the first time. The earliest the Senedd could formally meet is understood to be Tuesday 12 May.
Once a new Llywydd is elected, the Senedd will move to nominate and appoint a First Minister.
If confirmed, Rhun ap Iorwerth would become:
- The first non-Labour First Minister since devolution began
- The first Plaid Cymru First Minister
- The first First Minister from North Wales
A minority Plaid Cymru government is now the most likely outcome.
The dramatic result also saw Welsh Labour pushed into third place behind Reform UK, while former First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat in one of the most symbolic moments of the election.
The 2026 vote was the first held under the Senedd’s new electoral system, designed to produce more proportional results and reduce the likelihood of single-party majorities.
Political analysts believe coalition politics and minority governments could now become the norm in Cardiff Bay.
