Variance is one of the casino game metrics players can think about in terms of how it might influence bankroll during gaming sessions. We can start by clearing it up and saying that you can’t control variance and it won’t help you win, but it is worth knowing how it works. Read on to find out more.
What Does Variance in Blackjack Mean?
Blackjack variance is basically how much your results can swing from one hand to another.
Unlike roulette, you don’t always have the same amount of money at stake. One hand might end with you losing your original $10 wager. The next could involve splitting two cards on a double and suddenly having $30 or $40 on the table. With that, you’ve got variance.
You’ve also got different potential outcomes:
- Losing your wager
- Winning 1:1
- Getting a blackjack that typically pays 3:2
- Pushing with the dealer
- Doubling your wager
- Splitting into multiple hands
- Surrendering half your wager if the rules allow it
Blackjack variance can also change slightly depending on the table rules. Simulations from Wizard of Odds, for example, show variance around 1.3 for several common six-deck blackjack rule sets. Rules like doubling after a split and surrender affect the number slightly.
Basically, blackjack isn’t incredibly high variance compared with some of the most popular games you’ll find headlining online casino South Africa platforms.
How Does Variance Influence Blackjack Gameplay?
Variance mostly influences how your bankroll can look during a relatively short gaming session.
You could play perfect basic strategy and still lose five hands in a row. You could also make several questionable decisions and somehow keep winning.
Any blackjack game gives you opportunities to risk more money during certain hands. Doubling is the obvious example. If you’ve got $10 down and double, you’ve now got $20 riding on that hand. Splitting can do something similar because you create another hand with another wager. If another split is allowed, one starting hand can turn into several.
That doesn’t mean you should avoid doubling or splitting when the basic strategy says they’re the correct move. Those decisions are part of mathematically optimal blackjack strategy under the relevant rules.
Things like Perfect Pairs or 21+3 can offer far larger payouts than the main blackjack wager, but they’re separate bets with their own probabilities and house edges.
Can I Reduce Blackjack Variance?
You can’t remove blackjack variance completely. The easiest thing to control is your stake.
If you’ve got $100 and constantly wager $20 per hand, it won’t take many bad hands to make your bankroll disappear. Betting $5 obviously gives you far more room to deal with a losing streak.
You can also:
- Keep your base wager relatively consistent
- Avoid chasing losses by suddenly increasing your stake
- Be careful with high-payout side bets
- Set a bankroll before you start
- Check the table rules
- Use basic strategy
Basic strategy is particularly important because it tells you the mathematically best hit, stand, double, split, or surrender decision based on your cards and the dealer’s upcard. It doesn’t guarantee you’ll win, sadly.
You can apply variance to any casino game, but blackjack is a great example of how it can fluctuate. Even though you can’t control it, you can now take our information and at least consider what you’re doing with your bankroll because of variance.
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