Chambers Wales South East, South West and Mid partnered with Effective Communication, the PR and public affairs specialists, to host a special event exploring what the next Senedd election could mean for businesses in Wales.
The session, held at The Ivy in Cardiff, was led by Jonathan Morgan, the former Welsh Conservative Assembly Member who represented South Wales Central from 1999 to 2007 and Cardiff North from 2007 to 2011. Morgan, who also served as a special adviser to the Conservatives, shared his insight into why the 2026 election could mark the biggest shift in Welsh politics for a generation.
The session explored how the upcoming reforms to the Senedd’s electoral system could transform Welsh politics and what that means for businesses across the country, with the following key takeaways.
From devolution to transformation
Since devolution was introduced in the late 1990s, Wales has seen its system of government grow in both powers and influence. What began as the National Assembly has evolved into today’s Senedd, a full Welsh Parliament with responsibility for key areas of daily life.
Despite this evolution, one thing has remained constant: 60 members elected under a mixed system of first past the post and proportional representation. Labour has topped every election since 1999, governing alone, in coalition, or with the support of another party. But with major electoral reform now confirmed, that predictability may soon be gone.
Why 2026 is different
The most significant change is the end of first past the post – long seen as Labour’s biggest advantage in Wales. From 2026, elections will be decided entirely by proportional representation.
This means:
- The Senedd will grow from 60 to 96 members
- 40 constituencies and 20 regional seats will be replaced by 16 larger “super constituencies” each electing six members
- Every vote will carry equal weight, giving smaller parties a stronger chance of winning seats
Jonathan Morgan said:
“This is a fundamental shift in Welsh politics. The new system will make it harder for any one party to dominate, and that will almost certainly lead to more coalition governments. For voters, every ballot will count in a way it hasn’t before, which could bring new energy into Welsh democracy.”
The rise of new forces
The political landscape is already shifting. Reform UK has built momentum in polls and local by-elections, while the Green Party, under leader Zack Polanski, are pushing for their first Senedd breakthrough. Jeremy Corbyn has also announced a new left-wing party which already claims more than 23,000 members in Wales.
Together, these movements suggest the Senedd elected in 2026 could look very different to those of the past.
What this means for voters
For voters, the reforms mean every ballot will have greater weight. The proportional system reduces dominance by any one party and gives smaller parties a genuine chance of representation. This could encourage new groups of people to take part in Senedd elections, particularly those who already vote in UK general elections but have previously ignored Welsh contests.
What it means for business
For businesses and institutions, the changes bring uncertainty but also opportunity. Understanding how the new system works, and who the new decision-makers will be, could prove vital for organisations across Wales.
Alastair Milburn, Managing Director of Effective Communication, said:
“Change is coming, and businesses can’t afford to sit back and wait to see what happens. Now is the time to prepare, to understand how the political landscape is shifting, and to make sure your organisation has a voice in the debate. At Effective, we’re working with clients to help them anticipate these changes and adapt their strategies with confidence.”
Echoing this, Jonathan Morgan stressed that preparation is not just about adapting to change, but about actively shaping it through early engagement.
Jonathan Morgan added:
“For businesses, the real opportunity lies in engaging early. Take the time to understand what each of the main candidates and parties stand for, and how their priorities align with your own. Building those relationships ahead of the election will put organisations in a stronger position to have their voices heard when the new Senedd begins its work.”
What to watch for in 2026
When the polls close in 2026, several key questions will decide the shape of Welsh politics for years ahead:
- For the first time Labour are unlikely to be the largest party in the Senedd. Will Plaid Cymru or Reform win the most seats?
- No Party is likely to have a majority to govern alone, what coalition will form or will we have a minority government?
- Will the Greens or Corbyn’s new party make and impact?
- How will the expansion to 96 members – and dozens of new faces – affect the balance of power?
One thing is certain: the 2026 election will mark the most significant change to Welsh democracy in a generation. The outcome will reshape how Wales is governed, who represents its people, and how decisions are made long into the future.
Jonathan Morgan added: “The 2026 election will bring a new level of unpredictability to Welsh politics. For businesses, the key will be to stay engaged, understand how the new Senedd takes shape, and build relationships with a wider range of decision-makers than ever before.”
Gus Williams, CEO of Chambers Wales South East, South West and Mid, said:
“The scale of change in 2026 cannot be overstated. Welsh politics is about to become more open, more diverse and far less predictable. This is exactly the time for businesses to be proactive.
Membership organisations like the Chamber give firms a direct route to put forward their opinions and ensure those views are heard by policymakers. I would urge every business to use that voice and be part of shaping what comes next. Business needs certainty and competence when it comes to economic and business policy.”
Preparing for change
Effective Communication works with clients across Wales to help them understand and anticipate political change. If your organisation is looking for advice or support to navigate the impact of the 2026 election, get in touch with the team at Effective to find out how they can help.
