There are always many different factors to consider when trying to pick out winners. They can be hard to come by, especially at the Cheltenham Festival, where the action is always fiercely competitive, and anything less than perfection is not good enough.
The irishracing.com Cheltenham statistics point to trends that can be a very useful tool, so we’ve picked out some key Festival trends which shouldn’t be ignored.
The Turners is a bust for Team Britain
Only two British-trained horses have won the Turners Novices’ Hurdle in recent seasons, and Ireland has been utterly dominant, winning eight out of the last 10. Ireland’s big three (Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead) have won seven between them.
The Paul Nicholls-trained No Drama This End currently sits at the head of the market, and it hasn’t been a good race for the trainer over the years, with even the mighty Denman getting beaten in his novice hurdle days. Ireland is likely to train the winner once again.
Mullins rules supreme in the Triumph
Willie Mullins’ recent record in the Triumph Hurdle is nothing short of outstanding, and he has become a trend by himself. The Irish trainer has won this race in each of the last four seasons and five in the last six.
It’s therefore no surprise that he trains the first three in the ante-post betting for this year’s renewal, and Grade 1 winner Narciso Has is the obvious choice, although fellow French raider Proactif is also very promising and is definitely worth considering.
Staying is the name of the game
The Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is a gruelling test of ability and stamina, and as such, proven form over staying trips is often key. Seven of the last 10 winners had previously won over 2m7f or further under rules, and that’s definitely something to consider.
Current favourite Final Demand is worth taking on with that in mind, especially after his below-par display at the Dublin Racing Festival. Kaid d’Authie is next on the list, and he was a comfortable winner over 2m6f, which might be close enough, although the Big Westerner will have no issues.
Is the Champion Chase one for the younger generation?
The Champion Chase is a very hard race to win, as it’s a test of several attributes, such as jumping, speed and staying power. We haven’t had a veteran winner in the last eight years, and that trend looks set to continue.
You can add age to the list of reasons not to consider Jonbon for the Champion Chase, as he’s a 10-year-old, but the first four in the market all fit the age profile. Il Etait temps and Marine Nationale stand out as being the ideal candidates from an age point of view.
Horses for courses in the Ryanair
Previous course form has been a significant factor in this race in the last decade, with seven of the last 10 winners having won at Cheltenham before.
Several previous course winners are among the leading players, including market leader Gaelic Warrior. The likes of Fact To File, Jonbon and Banbridge are also in contention and shouldn’t be dismissed.
